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ISSN : 2093-2332(Print)
ISSN : 2287-5638(Online)
Journal of Korea Society of Waste Management Vol.35 No.8 pp.777-784

Development of Regional Flood Debris Estimation Model Utilizing Data of Disaster Annual Report: Case Study on Ulsan City

Man Ho Park, Honam Kim, Munsol Ju*, Hee Jong Kim**, Jae Young Kim
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Seoul National University
*Department of Living Environment Research, Korea Environment Institute
**Environmental & Safety Research Team, Ulsan Development Institute
Corresponding author : Jae Young Kim, Prof., Seoul National University,, 02-880-8364


Since climate change increases the risk of extreme rainfall events, concerns on flood management have also increased. In order to rapidly recover from flood damages and prevent secondary damages, fast collection and treatment of flood debris are necessary. Therefore, a quick and precise estimation of flood debris generation is a crucial procedure in disaster management. Despite the importance of debris estimation, methodologies have not been well established. Given the intrinsic heterogeneity of flood debris from local conditions, a regional-scale model can increase the accuracy of the estimation. The objectives of this study are 1) to identify significant damage variables to predict the flood debris generation, 2) to ascertain the difference in the coefficients, and 3) to evaluate the accuracy of the debris estimation model. The scope of this work is flood events in Ulsan city region during 2008-2016. According to the correlation test and multicollinearity test, the number of damaged buildings, area of damaged cropland, and length of damaged roads were derived as significant parameters. Key parameters seems to be strongly dependent on regional conditions and not only selected parameters but also coefficients in this study were different from those in previous studies. The debris estimation in this study has better accuracy than previous models in nationwide scale. It can be said that the development of a regional-scale flood debris estimation model will enhance the accuracy of the prediction.

재해연보 자료를 이용한 지역 단위 수해폐기물 발생량 예측 모형 개발: 울산광역시 사례 연구

박만호, 김호남, 주문솔*, 김희종**, 김재영
서울대학교 공과대학 건설환경공학부, *한국환경정책·평가연구원 생활환경연구부, **울산발전연구원 환경안전팀